End Of Year Run Correlations

October 08, 2025

Admin is Harrison Boyd who lives and works in the Pittsburgh Metro building useful things and following baseball. Connect on LinkedIn!

The Pirates are once again sitting on the couch during the MLB playoffs. The Pirates lost this year due to their lack of offense. No one will dispute that.

That begs the questions what stats and metrics led to runs scored this year? The Pirates scored the least number of runs this year with 583. The Yankees scored the most runs this year with 849. Let's see what the Pirates can do to score more runs next year.

Below is a list of stats and metrics and their correlations with runs scored. The closer to one, the higher the correlation with scoring runs. The Bucs want more of that.

R — 1
RBI — 0.992135870098753
wSC/C — 0.992006124179606
REW — 0.957476374483238
RE24 — 0.954299017182459
wRC — 0.950791706316199
wRAA — 0.944522834654891
wOBA — 0.943882557498424
Offense — 0.943264240314104
Off — 0.943264240314104
OPS — 0.938308569551524
Batting — 0.934449951834273
wRC+ — 0.933523110041277
WPA/LI — 0.91864356385061
RAR — 0.918185432148779
WAR — 0.918185432148779
Dollars — 0.918185432148779
Replacement — 0.90102858280403
PA — 0.901028582804029
OBP+ — 0.895025226142356
SLG+ — 0.893003423062342
OBP — 0.891468864132435
wSC — 0.888774783827154
SLG — 0.885772760341634
WPA — 0.878999340296117
wFB/C — 0.863651085542638
wFB — 0.860429325342358
xwOBA — 0.787011433827513
wFA/C — 0.774812328887403
wFA — 0.772047856016453
ISO+ — 0.770036076672833
wFA/C_2 — 0.75372274055587
wFA_2 — 0.749535412905855
ISO — 0.746027180794568
H — 0.741607878205633
AVG — 0.731091459337132
AVG+ — 0.729245759515296
+WPA — 0.725498813734744
BB — 0.720965431369653
xSLG — 0.71884442131206
HR — 0.715753237686174
wSL/C_2 — 0.694557147010019
wSL — 0.690706436045858
wSL/C — 0.689688043489001
wSL_2 — 0.687420583230466
AB — 0.674592497551329
wFS/C_2 — 0.663737677658396
wFS_2 — 0.661439172396131
wCH_3 — 0.660959560434094
wCH_2 — 0.659851063668769
BB%+ — 0.654180673987455
BB% — 0.653861912090579
BB/K — 0.652671531412604
SF — 0.648035036331029
wCH/C_3 — 0.646020656812236
wCH/C_2 — 0.645949145304778
wCH — 0.634719679291342
HardHit — 0.630455119947633
HR/FB — 0.620682913012085
Barrels — 0.616381238712237
wCH/C — 0.613170128250358
wSL/C_3 — 0.609867572962861
wSL_3 — 0.606925855797727
xBA — 0.601272914752185
wSF/C — 0.595564748645922
wSF — 0.57045307426682
wFS/C — 0.569611358390948
wSI/C_2 — 0.568718061793587
wSI/C — 0.55912602797164
wFS — 0.538492386681571
IBB — 0.53644196412253
wSI_2 — 0.535432622487128
wCU/C_2 — 0.524218893971974
wSI — 0.52295223086595
wCU_2 — 0.521237752795398
XX%_2 — 0.507383002932848
Barrel% — 0.491575040882405
HardHit% — 0.477213390285365
wCB — 0.471105042278085
wCB/C — 0.469688105066101
Pace — 0.449190767015498
CPTV — 0.442468177179674
Events — 0.435677594869832
wFO/C — 0.431668777188132
EV — 0.428072071997835
wFC — 0.420592472114669

#NAME?

SL-Z — 0.414282960244234
wCT — 0.411954639279527
wFC/C — 0.411630207681805
wFC_2 — 0.40794529381858
wFC/C_2 — 0.406478789009107
Hard% — 0.40324454309522
EBV — 0.401800333804593
Spd — 0.394702351290561
wCU — 0.394184198058655
wFO — 0.393059965659069
BsR — 0.38842136613937
Base Running — 0.38842136613937
wCU/C — 0.38705133196261
wCT/C — 0.382428946931087
PPTV — 0.37553719384367
2B — 0.356706611575408
BABIP — 0.351678157292639
BABIP+ — 0.34834626012239
1B — 0.307433622413835
Defense — 0.301959902028154
Def — 0.301959902028154
CH-Z — 0.299993999854613
wKN — 0.29717919226181
Fielding — 0.295370741840195
KN%_3 — 0.294764972761036
vCH — 0.290820422538206
EV90 — 0.289055029226963
wSB — 0.284470011398306
SI-X_2 — 0.282051046424314
vSL — 0.277159601065611
SI-X — 0.276712256568471
KN%_2 — 0.274571200991332
SFv — 0.273208680041656
EP-X — 0.268171177421549
XBR — 0.266305658701552
FA-Z — 0.260494719459784
CHv — 0.257423168264251
O-Contact% — 0.253083951673451
Contact%_3 — 0.251672055137226
Contact%_2 — 0.249973730971513
Contact% — 0.246261649927247
CH-Z_2 — 0.243850227301899
EP% — 0.241652501215213
O-Contact%_3 — 0.238164730569514
SB — 0.232830515680547
SB_2 — 0.232830515680547
O-Contact%_2 — 0.228723391294738
wEP — 0.21370498766318
SLv — 0.211770583149145
wPPTV — 0.211225272381059
wNetBatV — 0.209734733562406
wOppTeamV — 0.209138671971022
vFO — 0.207010967302301
wBPTV — 0.201315700450397
wDGV — 0.199387903180362
FS% — 0.197908707592571
Zone% — 0.195746542696459
vFA — 0.191794763483929
FA-Z_2 — 0.191680826201266
wKC — 0.19124509375756
wKC/C — 0.18222129268623
CStr% — 0.173661813913827
KN% — 0.170395229472334
CU% — 0.16964581268178
SC-X — 0.168161210941289
FA-X_2 — 0.162761452145507
FC-Z — 0.162340495095573
FA-X — 0.161622527694066
Z-Contact%_3 — 0.156373685503213
FB%+ — 0.155882688427695
G — 0.153928463417832
G_2 — 0.153928463417831
vSL_2 — 0.146570373865355
vCU — 0.139640755155787
FS%_2 — 0.137610625125874
wEP/C — 0.133219840268547
Z-Contact%_2 — 0.128803650383085
vFS — 0.124843561681098
FB% — 0.120814162099493
XX% — 0.115453337228385
vKN_2 — 0.109215833045293
CU-X_2 — 0.104943025733752
Z-Contact% — 0.0933578105077958
HBP — 0.0901553575447381
CU-X — 0.0889947895489216
wTeamV — 0.0880841832793158
vSI — 0.0880719153316078
Positional — 0.0860631547249626
CB% — 0.0860397790997225
vCH_2 — 0.085764591453226
CH%_3 — 0.0835930467267639
KNv — 0.0821052338331797
CU%_2 — 0.0788363114979052
PH — 0.0735535637122449
CT% — 0.0708114226348388
Zone%_2 — 0.0699121290684666
IFH — 0.0682694502209415
vSC — 0.059263124179647
3B — 0.058811664195373
Cent% — 0.0584393269445261
vCS — 0.0541260287390754
FC-Z_2 — 0.053642977031312
DGV — 0.0517479826080711
SF% — 0.0481291682596486
Cent%+ — 0.0460718680823413
LA — 0.0454731980771765
SL%_2 — 0.0453003193889726
CH%_2 — 0.042330215669895
CBv — 0.0422709138622071
CH% — 0.0419944031924173
vKC — 0.0348638202879087
wBTV — 0.0326910523026286
vFS_2 — 0.0312006845989023
maxEV — 0.030469109139486
KC-X — 0.0286294549582617
KC-Z — 0.0263272058044761
vCU_2 — 0.0247272879750607
LD% — 0.02432543242561
BPTV — 0.019490664374804
CU-Z — 0.0177393326967752
IFH% — 0.016485274587981
SL-Z_2 — 0.0126068121415627
League — 0.0120578892651853
FS-X_2 — 0.0116393577813
FBv — 0.00609515054818436
SL% — 0.00416870394551073
LD%+ — 0.00272825648503072
ESV — -0.00480649126789319
Oppo% — -0.00829752120434138
Oppo%+ — -0.0117521725656533
vFA_2 — -0.0126682603526406
Pull%+ — -0.0137712718413127
FA%_2 — -0.0215115593685806
Pull% — -0.0256224157560877
SL%_3 — -0.03629218412626
CS — -0.0394307478727296
SH — -0.0399771505640785
CS-Z — -0.0407344462989301
FC% — -0.0436370844420509
CS% — -0.0472331803778646
SI% — -0.0532670355185169
FS-X — -0.0597994732908999
wKN_2 — -0.0686333331538312
Clutch — -0.0713569599177672
vEP — -0.0751428527479313
CS-X — -0.0890370040160611
vSI_2 — -0.0939357135376347
CU-Z_2 — -0.0959966661558129
Zone%_3 — -0.0979668744539157
SI%_2 — -0.104910848553563
KC% — -0.105626104268241
vKN — -0.108774747240857
SI-Z — -0.111295986310825
FA% — -0.113021907338068
GDP — -0.117650206622689
Soft% — -0.118164220093516
FC-X — -0.120193225557612
BTV — -0.120505886092593
FC%_2 — -0.124294492500424
CH-X_2 — -0.128538848802021
GB/FB — -0.13133390473232
FO-X — -0.131614412165227
FB%_2 — -0.134194607246195
CH-X — -0.134460911335928
GB% — -0.134539714834339
wKN_3 — -0.14653176697849
GB%+ — -0.152204174875575
SO — -0.161391017039556
KN-X — -0.165207626139609
phLI — -0.169939535177489
FO-Z — -0.174287541691863
BUH% — -0.177354656704109
IFFB% — -0.180984512197424
BUH — -0.188163280555366
CTv — -0.194607941923151
FC-X_2 — -0.194957213548228
Z-Swing%_3 — -0.22706263262923
pLI — -0.234337720620635
CSW% — -0.234426978026112
KN-Z_2 — -0.236898141614931
vFC — -0.239877267977376
Z-Swing%_2 — -0.241176292560805
Z-Swing% — -0.261760675035621
EP-Z — -0.263586097363671
wKN/C — -0.282278591452516
KN-X_2 — -0.286370789239921
wKN/C_2 — -0.299576278609183
K%+ — -0.306226664823069
K% — -0.30824500261939
K%_2 — -0.30824500261939
vFC_2 — -0.318000666903008
SwStr% — -0.327284162921155
wCS — -0.335916800680579
SI-Z_2 — -0.337184207908796
O-Swing%_3 — -0.341821434512959
Med% — -0.354091935152917
FS-Z — -0.356247858006632
O-Swing% — -0.360157488346602
wKN/C_3 — -0.364065256562062
Swing% — -0.368124438077912
Swing%_2 — -0.369539372906596
Swing%_3 — -0.3695487875972
wCS/C — -0.380962023248145
O-Swing%_2 — -0.383273515438109
KN-Z — -0.388381843840078
FS-Z_2 — -0.395883482601105
SL-X_2 — -0.397405799069837
SC-Z — -0.404351915078441
SL-X — -0.41917698402685
FO% — -0.451992147633711
F-Strike% — -0.525847108828146
SC% — -0.950052854839602

Something funny found near the top of the list is wSC/C which represents the screw ball runs above average per 100 pitches. There seems to be only 3 teams that qualify so it was a coincidence that it was highly correlated with runs scored. The Cubs scored very high and the Pirates scored very low in that metric therefore it was highly correlated.

Most of the other high correlations at the very top are part of the runs scored family which uses runs scored to calculate so of course they will be highly correlated. That is until we get to wOBA which is highly correlated. In fact the on base stats seem to be slightly more correlated than their power counterparts.

wOBA and OBP+ is more correlated to runs than SLG, SLG+, and xSLG. BB is slightly more correlated than HR which surprises me. The ability to get on base seems to rein supreme this year in order to score runs. Power was important, but according to this EDA if you can get on base without hitting for power runs should come your way.

Now let's look at what stats and metrics are negatively correlated to scoring runs. The least correlated is SC% so the higher the number of screw balls seen, the less number of runs scored. Again, only 3 teams qualify for screw ball metrics, so we will ignore that.

Let's look at the next negatively correlated stat which is a lot more interesting. It is F-Strike% which is pretty significantly lower correlated than the next least correlated stats and metrics which is horizontal break on the slider which a hitter cannot control. But a hitter can control F-Strike% which is the percentage of first pitches in a PA that is a strike. This can include watching the first pitch strike, whiffing, or put into play. The Pirates were middle of the pack with this.

Out of zone swing percentage is another one which is highly negatively correlated, but the Bucs are good with this too. The Bucs even had a swing percentage along the lines of the better offensive teams, so that cannot be the problem.

The Bucs saw a lot of horizontal movement on the slider and vertical break on sinkers, both of which are negatively correlated. It really doesn't seem like the Bucs did much to hurt their run scoring this year.

However, the Bucs also did nothing to help their run scoring. They struck out too much, were last in home run, and didn't slug much. They are simply a non-lethal lineup and pitchers were happy to throw them their best stuff because opposing pitchers were not scared of making mistakes.

Until the Pirates can prove their lineup can punish mistakes they can be fundamentally sound like they were this year and still not score runs.