The Pirates struggle offensively, obviously. They aren't going to buy runs and those runs probably are not coming from internal options in the near term.
To help understand the Pirates' inability to score runs, we first need to understand what correlates to runs scored across the league.
Frangraphs is a great resource to find all kinds of stats and metrics. Also, we should define what is the difference between a stat and a metric using examples. HR is a stat — it’s a simple count of how many home runs a team or player has hit. Metrics usually require formulas that combine multiple stats often adjusted for context or scaled. An example of a metric is WAR and OPS. Some simpler formulas are considered stats like IFFB% (foreshadowing here).
The Fangraphs' 2025 batting data set for teams include a huge number of features that can be used to correlate with runs: ['teamIDfg', 'Season', 'Age', 'G', 'AB', 'PA', 'H', '1B', '2B', '3B', 'HR', 'R', 'RBI', 'BB', 'IBB', 'SO', 'HBP', 'SF', 'SH', 'GDP', 'SB', 'CS', 'AVG', 'GB', 'FB', 'LD', 'IFFB', 'Pitches', 'Balls', 'Strikes', 'IFH', 'BU', 'BUH', 'BB%', 'K%', 'BB/K', 'OBP', 'SLG', 'OPS', 'ISO', 'BABIP', 'GB/FB', 'LD%', 'GB%', 'FB%', 'IFFB%', 'HR/FB', 'IFH%', 'BUH%', 'wOBA', 'wRAA', 'wRC', 'Bat', 'Fld', 'Rep', 'Pos', 'RAR', 'WAR', 'Spd', 'wRC+', 'WPA', '-WPA', '+WPA', 'RE24', 'REW', 'pLI', 'phLI', 'PH', 'WPA/LI', 'Clutch', 'FB% (Pitch)', 'FBv', 'SL%', 'SLv', 'CT%', 'CTv', 'CB%', 'CBv', 'CH%', 'CHv', 'SF%', 'SFv', 'XX%', 'wFB', 'wSL', 'wCT', 'wCB', 'wCH', 'wSF', 'wFB/C', 'wSL/C', 'wCT/C', 'wCB/C', 'wCH/C', 'wSF/C', 'O-Swing%', 'Z-Swing%', 'Swing%', 'O-Contact%', 'Z-Contact%', 'Contact%', 'Zone%', 'F-Strike%', 'SwStr%', 'BsR', 'FA% (sc)', 'FC% (sc)', 'FS% (sc)', 'SI% (sc)', 'SL% (sc)', 'CU% (sc)', 'KC% (sc)', 'CH% (sc)', 'vFA (sc)', 'vFC (sc)', 'vFS (sc)', 'vSI (sc)', 'vSL (sc)', 'vCU (sc)', 'vKC (sc)', 'vCH (sc)', 'FA-X (sc)', 'FC-X (sc)', 'FS-X (sc)', 'SI-X (sc)', 'SL-X (sc)', 'CU-X (sc)', 'KC-X (sc)', 'CH-X (sc)', 'FA-Z (sc)', 'FC-Z (sc)', 'FS-Z (sc)', 'SI-Z (sc)', 'SL-Z (sc)', 'CU-Z (sc)', 'KC-Z (sc)', 'CH-Z (sc)', 'wFA (sc)', 'wFC (sc)', 'wFS (sc)', 'wSI (sc)', 'wSL (sc)', 'wCU (sc)', 'wKC (sc)', 'wCH (sc)', 'wFA/C (sc)', 'wFC/C (sc)', 'wFS/C (sc)', 'wSI/C (sc)', 'wSL/C (sc)', 'wCU/C (sc)', 'wKC/C (sc)', 'wCH/C (sc)', 'O-Swing% (sc)', 'Z-Swing% (sc)', 'Swing% (sc)', 'O-Contact% (sc)', 'Z-Contact% (sc)', 'Contact% (sc)', 'Zone% (sc)', 'Pace', 'Def', 'wSB', 'Off', 'Lg', 'Pull%', 'Cent%', 'Oppo%', 'Soft%', 'Med%', 'Hard%', 'TTO%', 'CH% (pi)', 'CU% (pi)', 'FA% (pi)', 'FC% (pi)', 'FS% (pi)', 'SI% (pi)', 'SL% (pi)', 'vCH (pi)', 'vCU (pi)', 'vFA (pi)', 'vFC (pi)', 'vFS (pi)', 'vSI (pi)', 'vSL (pi)', 'CH-X (pi)', 'CU-X (pi)', 'FA-X (pi)', 'FC-X (pi)', 'FS-X (pi)', 'SI-X (pi)', 'SL-X (pi)', 'CH-Z (pi)', 'CU-Z (pi)', 'FA-Z (pi)', 'FC-Z (pi)', 'FS-Z (pi)', 'SI-Z (pi)', 'SL-Z (pi)', 'wCH (pi)', 'wCU (pi)', 'wFA (pi)', 'wFC (pi)', 'wFS (pi)', 'wSI (pi)', 'wSL (pi)', 'wCH/C (pi)', 'wCU/C (pi)', 'wFA/C (pi)', 'wFC/C (pi)', 'wFS/C (pi)', 'wSI/C (pi)', 'wSL/C (pi)', 'O-Swing% (pi)', 'Z-Swing% (pi)', 'Swing% (pi)', 'O-Contact% (pi)', 'Z-Contact% (pi)', 'Contact% (pi)', 'Zone% (pi)', 'Pace (pi)', 'FRM', 'AVG+', 'BB%+', 'K%+', 'OBP+', 'SLG+', 'ISO+', 'BABIP+', 'LD+%', 'GB%+', 'FB%+', 'HR/FB%+', 'Pull%+', 'Cent%+', 'Oppo%+', 'Soft%+', 'Med%+', 'Hard%+', 'EV', 'LA', 'Barrels', 'Barrel%', 'maxEV', 'HardHit', 'HardHit%', 'Events', 'CStr%', 'CSW%', 'L-WAR']
Let's take a look at these across all thirty teams this year and see if we can find which ones correlate with scoring runs. The higher the correlation, the higher a team wants to score at that stat or metric. The lower the correlation, the lower the team wants to score at that stat or metric.
Besides, Runs Scored and RBIs, the most correlated metric is REW (Run Expectancy Wins). REW is derived from Run Expectancy, and measures how many wins a player has contributed based on changes in run expectancy during their plate appearance. In other words, it is situational hitting aka Donnie Ball. The situation on the field and where a player is in the lineup is context and that should be used to determine how the batter should approach their plate appearance.
The stat that most correlates with Runs is what I feared would be. It is the home run, and besides Oneil Cruz, no one can hit them.
The stat that hurts runs scored the most is IFFB%. IFFB% is Infield Fly Ball Rate, so how many infield fly balls per fly ball hit. They are essentially automatic outs, and is a characteristic of weak contact.
The metric that hurts runs scored the most is FS-Z (pi). FS-Z (pi) is Split Finger Fastball Z-Axis (vertical) Movement (from Pitch Info data). Pitch Info is a pitch tracking source that Fangraphs uses. It measures the vertical drop relative to a spinless pitch. In other words it measures relative drop of the pitch to the drop that gravity influences. The correlation to runs scored is surprising to me because the splitter isn't a common pitch anymore. However, this can be part of a greater answer for the Pirates. Maybe FS-Z (pi) is part a bigger picture of an ability to hit deception pitches better, or the fastball better.
We will have more on this topic later, stay tuned!