The Bucs have many players eligible for rule 5 draft this year. They can't protect them all, and don't need to. Who should they protect and who should they roll the dice on not getting drafted?
Some candidates with a higher possibility of being drafted include: Anthony Solometo, LHP (AA), Hunter Barco, LHP (AAA), Antwone Kelly, RHP (AA), Wilber Dotel, RHP (AA), Jack Brannigan, INF (AA), Esmerlyn Valdez, 1B/LF (AA), Brandan Bidois, RHP (AAA), Alessandro Ercolani, RHP (AA), Lonnie White Jr., OF (A+), and Jase Bowen, OF/1B (AAA).
The obvious candidate to protect is Hunter Barco. He is the Pirate's 4th highest rated prospect, the 83rd best prospect according to MLB Pipeline, and broke the Altoona Curve record for the longest scoreless streak for a pitcher reaching 25.2 straight scoreless innings.
Another one maybe not so much obvious as Hunter Barco, but I think will likely get drafted if not protected is reliever RHP Brandan Bidois. The Bucs signed him September 21, 2019 and he is in AAA and still only 24 years old. He has an awesome streak happening during the time of this writing. He hasn't given up a hit since August 3rd totalling 16 innings. He has a curveball with huge break and has a fastball reaching ~97 MPH. He pitched in all 4 levels in the minors this year.
I'm not worried about any of the hitters being drafted below AAA. Esmerlyn Valdez has the best chance of being drafted out of that group, but he still has an elevated K-rate in AA so I don't see any team taking a chance on him in the rule 5 draft.
Jase Bowen has reached AAA this year and is hitting well in AAA. He has a 29% K-Rate and not much power this year. In AAA, his K-Rate has been 24% which is still relatively elevated. However, he does play a solid center field. Despite that I do not think a team would take a chance on him. If his K-Rate was lower I think he would draw more interest.
That leaves 4 AA pitchers. Anthony Solometo has pitched in only 10.2 inning this year and went down with a left shoulder injury. Despite being a fringe top 100 prospect a couple of years ago, he will not be drafted this year. Alessandro Ercolani is a fringe starter who is 21 years old. He has a 4.04 ERA this year in AA, but has a very low K-Rate of 6 K's per 9, and 0.65 Ground Out/Air Out rate. These should prevent him from being drafted. Antwone Kelly has averaged 4.6 innings per start in AA and a 2.91 ERA. He has an OK K-rate with about 1 K per inning. He has a low whip and walk rate. He has performed well this year, and can hit 100 MPH. A team may want to take a chance on him as a reliever in the rule 5 draft. If there is an open spot on the 40-man without sacrificing someone who has a solid chance of contributing the Pirates, I would add him to the 40-man. Finally, there is Wilber Dotel. He has a ok WHIP (1.21), ok GO/AO (.76), and ok ERA (4.08). His ERA ballooned in July to 5.01, but has been fantastic since pitching a 2.60 ERA in August and so far in September a 1.80 ERA. He has a mid-90s fastball and added a splitter. I don't think a team will take a chance on him in the Rule-5 because he does not have the elite tools teams would be looking for like Antwone Kelly has.
To sum up, I would protect Barco, certainly. I would almost certainly protect Bidois. I would make strong effort to protect Kelly as well. The Bucs have quite a roster crunch coming up with currently 42 players on the 40-man roster including 4 players on the 60-Day IL. They have 2 players who are pending free agents in Tommy Pham and Andrew McCutchen. That leaves the roster at exactly 40 when the world series is finished. We discussed 3 players the Pirates should add here giving them 43, and McCutchen is likely to be back which will lead to 44 players on the 40 man roster. The Bucs have about 8 fringe 26-man players who are out of options next year. The Bucs will likely look to DFA some of these out of option players to make room.