The offseason is fast approaching spring training. Pitchers and catchers report to Bradenton February 12. The rest of the team report February 17. The first spring training game is February 22. The Pirates still haven't signed an everyday or platoon worthy corner outfielder. Given the Pirates self-imposed budget constraints one of the best fits is still available.
This article is a sequent to the More Pitches Don't Mean Higher OBP article. If you have not read it yet, I highly recommend it to get a briefing on a major hole in the Pirates' lineup that Alex Verdugo can fill.
MLB teams see more 4-seam fastballs than any other pitch. As a matter of fact, in 2024, the Pirates and Nationals saw the least number of Four Seams with 6,876 and 6,657 respectively. The next highest pitch type a team saw was the Padres facing the sinker (2-Seam Fastball) 4,457 times. The Sinker and Slider are in the next tier of pitch types that teams see with the Pirates seeing 4,289 Sinkers which ranks as the 4th most in 2024. The Pirates faced the 6th most sliders of any team in 2024 facing the pitch 3,940 times. The other pitch types thrown in 2024 sort of mix, but a clear pattern can be found. The changeup is thrown the next highest number of times followed by the cutter then the curveball then the sweeper. The Pirates saw 2,488 changeups, 1,800 cutters, 1,561 curveballs, and 1,414 sweepers. They saw around the median number of those pitchers with changeups being the highest ranking 11th and cutters being the lowest at 22nd.
Clearly teams are seeing the Sinker and Slider as an advantage playing the Pirates. Let's look at the 2025 Zips projections to see who they believe the Pirates best hitters will be. Players with above age OPS+ on their projections include Horwitz at 118, Reynolds at 115, Cruz at 114, Suwinski at 111, Gonzales at 106, and Palacios at 104. Henry Davis has a projected OPS+ at 101. That is technically above average, but it is so close to average we will exclude him.
Let's go back to 2023 to get a larger sample size for these players, and break it down by pitchers hand/platoon.
Facing righties and the 4-Seam the Pirates have players who can smash the baseball. Spanning 2023 and 2024 the Pirates have Horwitz and Cruz who have an OPS over 1.000. Reynolds has a .873 OPS while Suwinski has an OPS just over .800 and Gonzales is solid at .782. Palacios is way below league average. Against Sinkers Palacios comes up big with a .977 OPS. After him only Horowitz has an OPS over .800, barely. Nicky-G has a .767 OPS, and B-Rey .780, and Suwinski .791. Oneil Cruz has trouble against the Sinker coming in at .646. These are decent numbers against the sinker, however Cruz who the Pirates will rely on stuggles. The slider is much more bleak. Palacios again smashes with a .845 OPS. The only other hitter with a greater than .700 OPS vs righties and sliders is Jack Suwinski at .753. Palacios and Suwinski are the two players in this list with the lowest confidence making the opening day roster, and Nick Gonzales has an OPS below .500 against righties and sliders. Clearly this is the biggest weakness the Pirates have.
What's the solution? Alex Verdugo may be that solution. Alex Verdugo has an OPS against Righties and Fastballs at .816 spanning the 2023 and 2024 seasons. His OPS against sinkers is outstanding at .922 which would be second best on the team during that time. His OPS against sliders is .804 which again would be second on the team. Not to mention he also hits above .800 OPS against the Curveball and Sweeper, and has a well above average K rate. Big breaking pitches just don't bother Verdugo and that is what the Pirates need.