The Pirates lack power, and it doesn't seem like they are going to add externally to improve their power numbers. They are acquiring players who have low whiff rates and square up the ball like IKF, Spencer Horwitz, Tommy Pham, and Adam Frazier. I guess if you are not going to clear the bases you need to spray the ball often? I think the Bucs are hoping to Zag when most of the competitive teams are Zinging, but are they alone?
If you haven't read any of the articles about the Pirates change in hitting philosophy please check them out.
- Matt Hague Telling Stories
- Matt Hague Data Scientist
- Communication is Key
- More Pitches Don't Mean Higher OBP
Look at the scatter plot below of the teams' Runs Scored and Home Runs for the 2023 and 2024 season combined.
Clearly there is a correlation. The scatter looks to have a moderate linear correlation. It's not prefect so there is an opportunity for the Bucs to not play the HR game and still score runs. But clearly it is not an easy thing to do.
It looks like the fewer cases where more home run hasn't produced more runs has occurred for the New York teams and Oakland. The teams where it looks like hitting home runs really paid off seem to be the "smarter" teams in MLB such as the Dodgers, Braves, Phillies, and Orioles. Some teams who have sacrificed power to rely more on contact organizationally on purpose like the Rays and Blue Jays have not scored more runs than expected doing so. However, there are some success stories like the Cubs and Diamondbacks who have scored run without hitting a lot of home runs.
So there are success stories already for the Bucs to follow, but time will tell if the Bucs succeed.