The Pirates 'Big Three' include Bryan Reynolds, Oneil Curz, and Spencer Horwitz. Just Kidding. The Big Three are of course Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller, and Jared Jones. The eye tells us they are a great trio, but how do they stack up to the rest of the NL Central.
Cardinals
According to MLB.com the Cardinals top 3 starters include Sonny Gray, Erick Fedde, and Miles Mikolas. Zips values Sonny Gray as 3.9 WAR, Fedde at 2.2, and Mikolas at 1.3. Skenes is valued at 4.5, Keller at 2.8, and Jones 2.7. Last year Skenes produced 4.3 fWAR, Keller at 2.2, and Jones at 1.8. The Cardinals Big Three last year produced Sonny Gray at 3.8, Fedde at 3.4, Mikolas at 2.0. That puts the Cardinals Big Three ZIPs projected at 7.4 WAR, and the Pirates Big Three ZIPS projected at exactly 10 WAR. Advantage Buccos. Last year the Bucs Trio produced 8.3 WAR, and the Cardinals Trio was at 9.2. The Cardinals won that one. If we normalize the pitchers to pitch at least 30 starts, meaning if a pitcher makes less than 30 starts we will increase his fWAR at that years fWAR per start to 30 starts, but not reduce the overall fWAR if a pitcher starts 30 or more times we get the following. Jones lands at 2.5 fWAR, Skenes at a whopping 5.6, and Keller stays the same at 2.2. Gray gets a small bump to 4.1, Fedde stays the same at 3.4, and so does Mikolas at 2.0. That gives the Pirates normalized fWAR at 10.3 and the Cardinals 9.5. Not bad for two rookies and a Keller who had a down year, huh?
Cubs
The Cubs Big Three according to MLB.com include: Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, and Jameson Taillon. ZIPs projects this year Shota at 3.1, Steele at 3.3, and Jameson at 1.6. That is clearly less that the Bucs ZIPs total of 10 WAR, coming in at 8. Last year, Shota and Steele pitched to a solid 3.0 fWAR each while Taillon pitched to 2.3. That tied the Bucs Big Three at 8.3. If we normalize the number of starts, Shota gets a small boost to 3.1, Steele gets a larger boost to 3.8, and Taillon also gets a boost to 2.5. That gives the Cubs 9.4 normalized fWAR and the Pirates led by Skenes lands at 10.3 beating the North Siders.
Reds
The Reds Big 3 going by the MLB.com depth chart are: the flame throwing Hunter Greene, Brady Singer, and Andrew Abbott. ZIPs projects them as follows: Greene at 3.8, Singer at 1.3, and Abbott at 1.8. The total 6.9 WAR falls short of the Bucs projected 10 WAR total by 3.1 WAR. Last year Greene pitched to a fWAR of 3.8, Singer sung a nice tune at 2.5, and Abbott made it look elementary at 1.1. The 7.4 fWAR total last year still lagged behind the Bucs's 8.3. Normalizing didn't make it look any better for the Redlegs. Greene's normalized fWAR is 4.4, Singer stays at 2.5, and Abbott gets a small boost to 1.3 totalling 8.2. The Bucs beat them by 2.1 fWAR normalized with their 10.3.
Brewers
MLB.com has the Brewers Big Three as Freddy Peralta, the returning Brandon Woodruff, and last year's mid-season pickup Aaron Civale. ZIPs projects Peralta at 3.1 WAR, Woodruff having a strong return pitching at 3.3, and Civale pitching more like he did early season with the Rays at 1.7. Bucs 10 WAR Brew Crew 8.1. Last year Peralta pitched to 2.3 fWAR, Woodruff didn't pitch last year but we will take his 2023 fWAR total before he got hurt at 1.5, and Civale 0.9. That is clearly less than the Pirate's 8.3 coming in at 4.7 fWAR. If we normalize last years fWAR, and in the Case of Woodruff his 2023 season we get the following. Peralta holds fast at 2.3 fWAR, and Civale also holds at 0.9. Woodruff gets a huge buff to 4.1. That sums to 7.3 but is dwarfed by the Hundo Boys and Keller's 10.3.
That leaves the Pirates Big Three as follows. Without normalizing starts Keller's group looked pretty at tied for second with the Cubs Big Three last year, but behind the Cardinals who led the division at 9.2 fWAR last year. If you normalize each team's Big Three to at lest 30 starts the Pirates have the crown with the closest being the Cards .8 fWAR behind. Looking forward to the coming season's ZIPs projection the Pittsburgh Baseball Club once again leads the division with exactly 10 WAR. The second place medal going to Brewers at 8.1 WAR. That's an exciting difference, and I can't wait to see it play out!