Matt Hague is telling stories. His stories are a common data science strategy used to explain the data to stakeholders. Stakeholders this case are the hitters. The Matt Hague hiring seems to be the next step in the process to develop hitting in the Pirates Organization.
I know this article is a little late to the party, but I didn't get the site up until January 20, 2025. The Pirates Announced Matt Hague will be filling the vacant Hitting Coach role on November 21, 2024. The role was opened after the Pirates announced the team parted ways with Andy Haines on September 30, 2024. There was a lot of demand outside the Pirates Organization for the Pirates to replace Haines, and to my understanding there was to a lesser extent internally demand for the Pirates to replace Haines.
To me, it seems Andy Haines coaches a lineup to be arguably like the best lineup in baseball, the LA Dodgers. Haines coaches patience at the plate and aggressive swings in the players hot zone for select pitches. This leads to players swinging out of their shoes, and watch strikes go by. This lead to the hitters playing behind in the count in a game where the pitcher makes the first moves and already has the advantage.
The Dodgers came in second in the league each year since 2021 in walks, and top 5 in home runs every year during the same timeframe. The Brewers ended up in the top 5 in walks each season since 2021, and the Yankees finished ahead of the Dodgers in walks for 3 of those seasons. The Braves finished in the top 5 in home runs during that time, but never in the top 5 in walks during that time. The Brewers finished in the top 5 in home runs one of those seasons and the Yankees twice. The Pirates finished around league average in walks or better each season and no better than 18th in home runs. Except for 2021, the Pirates found themselves in the bottom 10 in strikeouts. The Dodgers will find themselves at around league average or slightly better in strikeouts. The Brewers, Yankees, and Braves most years find themselves in the bottom half the league in strikeouts. It seems only the dodgers can be elite in home runs, walks, and average or better in strikeouts. The Pirates clearly can't pay to play to have the athletes the dodgers have, and other teams financially capable simply are not doing what the dodgers are doing.
With Andy Haines's departure and Matt Hague's arrival a change in strategy might be in order. Who knows, maybe going with Andy Haines so long (2022 - 2024 seasons) is part of a plan. In November 2021 Andy Haines was hired and the 2021 season was the only season since then the Pirates were in top 5 for least number of strikeouts. The Pirates were also about league average in walks in 2021. The Pirates initially tried to limit strikeouts during the first two seasons of the Cherington era beginning in 2020. During the 2020 shortened season, the Pirates were on a historic pace for loses. Despite that they were around league average in strikeouts, but near the bottom in walks. In 2021 they were near the bottom in walks and rock bottom in home runs while being league average in strikeouts. When Cherington took over the Pirates, the Pirates still considered not striking out a priority and that carried over into 2020 and 2021 before hiring Haines. Cherington certainly was still trying to get his bearings and developing hitters during this time before seeing his acquisitions and picks fail for the most part in the majors.
After the Pirates Hired Haines, Cherington's prospect acquisitions began making the majors such as Suwinski, Peggy, Diego Castillo, and CSN. Except for Suwinski's hot streaks they all struggled. But they did see a lot of pitches due to Haines's hitting philosophy and the Pirates got to collect a lot of data because of that. The Brewers previously employed Haines, and they had the same strikeout problem while employing Haines as the Hitting Coach. The Pirates have now moved on from Haines like the Brewers did and hired Matt Hague formerly known as the Hit Collector while he played for the Pirates. The Brewers are now regularly near the top of the league in walks while still striking out at a higher rate than league average.
Matt Hague's former team, the Blue Jays since 2022 have been better than league average in walks and strikeouts. Another acquisition from the Blue Jays, IKF, has the highest squared-up per swing percentage of all hitters from discussed teams in this article except for the Dodgers's Mookie Betts and Ernie Clement from the Blue Jays. The fourth highest is free agent target Alex Verdugo. Spencer Horwitz would have been second on the Pirates behind IKF, and just ahead of Bryan Reynolds. No other Pirates would have been average or better. What else does Alex Verdugo, Spencer Horwitz, IKF have in common? They are better than average at not striking out. Reynolds is around league average every year. The other major acquisition at the trade deadline during the 2024 season was Bryan De La Cruz. Bryan De La Cruz is around league average in peripherals such as square-up/swing and bat speed. That may be the Pirates last attempt to turn league average peripherals (give or take 10 percentiles) into an above average hitter. I don't think the Haines philosophy works with these players. It can work if the Pirates have the Dodgers talent, or can sort of work to a lesser extent if they have the Braves or Yankees lineup. Clearly the Pirates won't get there. The best example of success through development recently to succeed while not being near the bottom of the league in strikeouts, homeruns, or walks is the Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles hit a lot of home runs in 2024, but besides that they are league average and a little worse or a little better in the rest. I think this will prevent them from reaching the pennant with the current core.
The Pirates best shot is to follow the Brewers and also try to limit the strikeouts. It seems like the Pirates are trying to keep their walk rates while striking out less and sacrificing home runs. This is similar results as the Blue Jays. Ben Cherington, Matt Hague, IKF, and Horwitz's former team. I believe the acquisition of Alex Verdugo or Randal Grichuk would help. There may even be another trade in the works with the Blue Jays since they missed out on Sasaki.
There is also evidence the Pirates are paying mind improving communication with Players to reach league average or better in walks, lower strikeout, and limit homeruns strategy. More on that in a future Article.