More Pitches Don't Mean Higher OBP

January 26, 2025

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Admin is Harrison Boyd who lives and works in the Pittsburgh Metro building useful things and following baseball. Connect on LinkedIn!

Spanning the 2023 and 2024 seasons the Pirates saw the 18th highest number of Pitches which is just below average. They were about league average coming in at 16th in walks, so you would think they would be around league average in OBP. Well, think again!

The Pirates were tied for 25th in OBP spanning the 23 and 24 seasons. They walked more than any other low OBP peers until you get to the 10th lowest OBP, the Giants. The Bucs had the lowest OBP against the Sweeper, the third lowest against the slider, the fourth lowest against the sinker.

They are about middle of the pack when it comes to 4-seam and changeup OBP, and top 10 OBP with the curveball. This tells me that the Pirates are ok identifying change in velocity and vertical break. However, they struggle mightily with horizontal break.

Looking through the Pirates lineup, only Oneil cruz hits sliders at near league average. Everyone else including Bryan Reynolds are either a free agent or have struggled against the pitch. Yasmani Grandal hits sliders very well, but he is gone. The Pirates need to improve how they fare against horizontal break, and add to the team hitters who can identify and hit horizontal break. The Pirates see the third fewest fastballs because opposing teams know this weakness.

We will be looking into potential free agents the Pirates can hire to help them against the horizontal break. This player would be best served hitting at the top of their lineup in between Reynolds and Cruz. I'm not saying the player needs to be a "dude", but he needs to make the pitcher be "on" in order to be successful. Opposing pitchers only need horizontal break with an occasional fastball to beat the Pirates. That makes it easier for pitchers to prep with a smaller arsenal.

There are still some free agents remaining that can help in this regard, and we will be analyzing them in future articles. For now the best one to know is Alex Verdugo who the Pirates are linked to. Another solid option was Jesse Winker, but he has recently resigned with the Mets.


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