At the time of this writing the San Diego Padres are still above the 2025 MLB Luxury Tax Threshold of $241,000,000. The Friars Tax Payroll is estimated to be about $254,000,000 which is 14 million over.
It happens to be that Luis Arraez is getting paid 14 million this year which would put the Padres under the Luxury Tax Threshold. As we know, Luis Arraez is the best at what he specializes in and has a hitting profile similar to those the Bucs have been acquiring. Arraez is in the 100th percentile of squaring up the ball, strike out rate, and whiff rate. He's also in the 98th percentile hitting the ball on the sweet spot and expected batting average.
Jake Cronenworth is primarily an infielder, but the Bucs could consider him for an outfield or DH role. He is owed $12,285,714 through 2030 which is around the end of the Pirates window of competition. Offloading this contract would put the Padres close to the threshold number. Cronenworth struggled in 2024 and the Padres may be looking to offload that contract to make room for future acquisitions. At his best he is around a 4 WAR player who would add power to the Pirates lineup and still fit in the Pirates low whiff rate, low chase rate, high square up profile. Last year Jake Cronenworth had an xwOBA of .335, a xBA of .259, and a xSLG of .420 so he is due to rebound.